Can anyone predict the fastest marathon a human will ever run?
Statisticians and physiologists predicted when the two-hour marathon would fall, and every date they gave turned out to be too late.
▶ Start the storyNot reliably, and the marathon is a good example of why. Before the two-hour barrier fell, several forecasters gave dates. François Peronnet of the University of Montreal said 2028. Simon Angus of Monash University said May 2032, with 1-in-10 odds. The Economist, extrapolating the record's long fall of 8 to 9.4 seconds a year, said 2036 or 2040.
Physiologists approach it differently. Andrew Jones of the University of Exeter and colleagues suggested three factors that matter: a high VO2 max, excellent running economy and a high lactate turn point. Others were doubtful: Glenn Latimer and Samuel Wanjiru thought the record would plateau around 2:02, and in 2013 LetsRun.com's Robert Johnson said humans were not close.
Curves and statistics
- Peronnet: 2028
- Angus: May 2032, odds 1 in 10
- The Economist: 2036 or 2040
Bodies and sceptics
- Jones: VO2 max, economy, lactate turn point
- Latimer and Wanjiru: plateau around 2:02
- Johnson: humans aren't close
The record-eligible barrier fell on 26 April 2026, when, according to Wikipedia's record lists, Sabastian Sawe ran 1:59:30 in London. That was earlier than every date above. Super shoes arrived in 2016, and new technology can lower times independently of physiology or even training.
Not every event moves like that. The mile times of one 1999 race were not beaten until Josh Kerr's new record in July 2026, and Usain Bolt's 9.58 from 2009 is still, as of 2026, the 100 m record, so there is no single curve and no single ceiling.
Quiz me
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Recap
A record curve is only as good as the assumption that shoes, rules and conditions stay the same.
💡 A trick to remember it · A trend line draws the road behind you, not the shortcuts ahead.
Surprising fact · A 1999 mile time was still the second fastest in history until Josh Kerr's record in July 2026.
Connects to
- ⏱️ Eliud Kipchoge ran a marathon in 1:59:40, so why is it not the world record?
- 👟 Are carbon-plated super shoes helping runners set records, or is it cheating?
- 🧮 Why can two runners with the same VO2 max finish a marathon minutes apart?
- 📈 Why did computer chips double in power every two years, and can it last?
- ⏱️ Did people really think the four-minute mile was impossible?
- ↩️ Why is a brilliant performance usually followed by a worse one?
- Usain bolt
Sources (8)
No source, no claim. Every fact in this lesson (23 claims) cites at least one of these.