Why did nobody see the Great Storm of 1987 coming?
An estimated 15 million trees fell in one night, and a few words on TV became a classic forecasting gaffe.
▶ Start the storyBritish forecasters missed it because their forecasts changed their minds and the ocean to the south-west was thinly observed, while a French model, as it turned out, did better. On the night of 15 to 16 October 1987 a violent extratropical cyclone, the Great Storm, hit with hurricane-force winds, causing casualties in England, France and the Channel Islands. At least 22 people were killed, and in England an estimated 15 million trees were felled, including six of the seven oaks of Sevenoaks.
15 million
That day's weather reports failed to indicate a storm of such severity, and an earlier, somewhat more accurate forecast had been negated by later projections. Forecasts from the preceding weekend had correctly identified gale-force winds for southern England. Later model runs, however, indicated a more southerly track and the strongest winds only over northern and central France. The French meteorological office used a different computer model, and it proved more accurate about the storm's severity in the Channel.
There was also a hole in the observations. Weather experts have pointed out that, with no weather ship in the Southwest Approaches because of Met Office cutbacks, the storm could only be tracked by satellite, since automatic buoys had not been deployed at the time.
Then there is the sentence that made a forecaster famous. Hours before the storm, BBC meteorologist Michael Fish said a woman had rung to say a hurricane was on the way, and told viewers not to worry, though he went on to warn that it would be very windy across the south of England. He later said he was talking about Florida. In a 2012 interview he said the woman caller did not actually exist: a white lie he made up himself. The episode gave us the term the Michael Fish effect, for forecasters now inclined to predict a worst-case scenario to avoid being caught out.
The storm also changed forecasting. After it, the Met Office improved ocean observations and set up the National Severe Weather Warning Service.
Quiz me
0/3
Recap
The forecast was lost between a good early signal, a bad later model run and a gap in ocean observations.
💡 A trick to remember it · The storm hid in a blank patch of the ocean map, and the forecast chased it in the wrong direction.
Surprising fact · Michael Fish later said the woman caller in his famous forecast did not exist: a white lie he made up himself.
Sources (3)
No source, no claim. Every fact in this lesson (17 claims) cites at least one of these.