How can testing sewage reveal an outbreak before hospitals do?

Poliovirus was tracked through the sewage of New York and Chicago in the 1940s, and the same idea now tracks COVID and mpox.

Sewage can reveal an outbreak because many viruses are excreted in feces, and a treatment plant collects the waste of a whole community in one place. Scientists sample the wastewater, measure the genetic traces of a germ, and learn about the whole population at once, including people who never get tested, so a rise can give health departments lead time before the patients arrive. The method is called wastewater-based epidemiology, and it works like urinalysis on a community scale: its results are population-level rather than individual level.

It is not a new idea. In the 1940s the technique was applied to detect and track poliovirus in the sewage of New York, Chicago and other cities, and the WHO today recognises wastewater testing as an important tool for polio surveillance, especially where mainstream surveillance methods are lacking. During the COVID-19 pandemic it was used in various countries as a complementary way to assess the load of the virus and its variants in populations, and it was used to detect monkeypox in the 2022 outbreak.

From flush to forecast
  1. Step 1: Flush

    Infected people shed germs and traces

  2. Step 2: Treatment plant inlet

    Waste of the whole arrives

  3. Step 3: Autosampler

    A 24-hour sample is collected before treatment

  4. Step 4: Lab

    PCR or sequencing measures the traces

  5. Step 5: Health department

    Trends give lead time to decide

The big advantage is time and scope. A warning from wastewater can give health departments critical lead time, and unlike testing individuals, it covers the entire population in a area. The limits are real too: it is unclear how cost-effective it is, and less common infections may be difficult to detect.

Wastewater surveillance in the source
  1. 1940s

    Poliovirus tracked in sewage of New York and Chicago

  2. 2013

    Study finds Aichivirus A in Dutch sewage from 1987

  3. 2022

    Used to detect monkeypox; global antimicrobial-resistance survey

Quiz me

0/3

  1. 1.What is the main difference between wastewater testing and testing individuals?
  2. 2.Why do labs need to watch for inhibition when using PCR on sewage?
  3. 3.What did the 2013 study of archived Dutch sewage show?

Recap

Test the sewage at the treatment plant and you test the whole catchment at once, which can give an early warning but cannot catch everything.

💡 A trick to remember it · A city's sewer is its shared diary: every flush adds a line, and the lab reads the whole page at once.

Surprising fact · In the 1940s, poliovirus was already being tracked in the sewage of New York and Chicago.

Sources (1)

No source, no claim. Every fact in this lesson (15 claims) cites at least one of these.

  1. [1]Wastewater-based epidemiology · Wikipedia
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