How strong is the 2026 El Niño, and what are NOAA and the WMO saying?

As of 21 October 2026, the 2026-2027 El Niño is strong and still growing, and the official agencies say it could become one of the strongest on record, though that is a forecast, not a result. On 8 October NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said a strong-to-very strong El Niño was likely through January-March 2027, and put the chance of a historic event, stronger than any El Niño since 1950, at 83% for October-December. The same day the WMO's Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, said El Niño was "firmly established and strengthening rapidly", with a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, "potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950".

How did it get here? A weak La Niña gave way to neutral conditions in early 2026. On 2 June a WMO update gave an 80% likelihood of an El Niño during June-August, and on 11 June NOAA said El Niño conditions were present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter. By 3 September the WMO said El Niño was firmly established and would intensify into a very strong event, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres said it was "being supersized before our eyes".

What does "very strong" mean? NOAA's official term is "very strong El Niño", used when average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific rise by 2 °C or more; "super El Niño" is an informal label that the WMO does not use. These are dated forecasts: the peak is expected around December, and the final size will only be known once the event is over.