Maths●●●●●Difficulty 3 of 5

What do polluting cars, Moon craters and fortunes have in common?

Very few cars cause most of the exhaust, so taking just those few off the road would cut total pollution substantially. That lopsided pattern, a power law, shows up all over nature and society.

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Imagine lining up every car in a city by how much exhaust it produces. In most everyday situations you'd expect the dirtiest cars to be only a bit worse than average. But car pollution doesn't work that way: it follows a power law, where a tiny share of cars accounts for most of the contamination, which means removing just those few cars from the road would cut total exhaust substantially, far more than removing a random handful. Moon craters, solar flares, word frequencies and Americans' fortunes all follow the same lopsided pattern.

That's the signature of a power law: a relationship where changing one quantity changes another by a proportional amount raised to a fixed exponent, no matter how big or small the starting quantities are. The same shape, not the same numbers, but the same lopsided shape, turns up again and again: in the sizes of craters on the Moon, in how often different words appear in a language, in the net worth of Americans, and in how big cities' populations compare to each other. This last case even has its own name, Zipf's law: the second-biggest city in a country tends to have about half the population of the biggest, the third-biggest about a third, and so on down the list.

Zipf's law: city rank vs. relative population

relative population

Bar chart: Zipf's law: city rank vs. relative population. (relative population)
Relative population
1st city100 relative population
2nd city50 relative population
3rd city33 relative population
4th city25 relative population
5th city20 relative population
Under Zipf's law, the second-largest city tends to have about half the population of the largest, the third about a third, and so on.

Because a small number of cases can dominate the total, statistics built on variance and standard deviation, like regression analysis, become the wrong tool for power-law data; a typical case tells you much less than it would for, say, human heights. But the same skew that breaks ordinary statistics is also what makes targeting power-law problems so effective, whether that means a handful of polluting cars, a handful of cities, or a handful of anything else sitting at the extreme end of the curve.

Quiz me

0/3

  1. 1.Why would removing a small number of the worst-polluting cars substantially reduce a city's total car exhaust?
  2. 2.What does it mean for a power law to be 'scale invariant'?
  3. 3.According to Zipf's law, how does the population of a country's second-largest city typically compare to its largest city?

Recap

In a power law, a few cases hold most of the total, whether that's pollution, wealth or city size, which is why focusing on the extremes can matter more than focusing on the average.

Surprising fact · Eliminating just a tiny fraction of the worst-polluting cars could substantially cut a city's total car exhaust, because that pollution follows a power law.

Sources (1)

No source, no claim. Every fact in this lesson (8 claims) cites at least one of these.

  1. [1]Power law · Wikipedia
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