Why did Somali piracy surge in the 2000s and then collapse?

Somali piracy surged because a country without a navy or a working government sat beside a vital artery of world trade, and because kidnapping ships for ransom turned out to be very profitable. It collapsed when navies, shipping companies and courts responded and the payouts fell. Piracy off Somalia began as a threat to foreign fishing vessels in the early 2000s and rapidly escalated to international shipping during the War in Somalia (2006 to 2009).

The background was state collapse. The Somali Navy dissolved by about 1991 as the civil war continued, and large foreign fishing boats exploited the vacuum. Foreign fishing in Somali waters has increased more than twenty-fold since 1981. Coastal Somali communities report that the conflict began as self-defence against foreign trawlers that steal fish and restrict access to traditional fishing grounds, though the practice soon became a lucrative trade. Armed groups in small boats would sometimes hold vessels and crews for ransom. Ransom income was estimated at about $58 million in 2009 and $238 million in 2010, and the average ransom rose to $5.4 million in 2010 from about $150,000 in 2005.

Then came the response. In June 2008 the UN Security Council authorised nations to enter Somali waters to deal with pirates, and the EU launched Operation Atalanta in December 2008. By 2011 ransom income had fallen to $160 million, a trend attributed to intensified counter-piracy efforts. Attempted hijackings fell from 237 in 2011 to 75 in 2012. In 2023 the International Maritime Bureau lifted the Indian Ocean High Risk Area. But piracy is not gone: December 2023 saw the first successful hijacking of a cargo vessel in the area after six years.

The human cost was real: in 2007 a Chinese sailor was killed because the owners did not meet the ransom.