Why did paying for rat tails leave Hanoi with more rats?
In 1902 Hanoi paid a cent per rat tail, and soon tailless rats were scurrying through the city while rat farms sprang up outside it.
▶ Start the storyBecause the reward paid for rat tails, not for fewer rats, and people found it more profitable to keep rats alive. In 1902, with a plague pandemic raging, the French authorities in Hanoi offered one cent per rat, collected on presentation of the tail. Soon officials noticed healthy rats running around with no tails: hunters were cutting off the tails and releasing the rats to breed more. Then inspectors found farms outside the city raising rats purely for their tails.
Step 1: Plague fears
Rats in Hanoi's sewers during a global pandemic
Step 2: 1 cent per tail
Show a rat's tail, collect the bounty
Step 3: Cut and release
Tailless rats let go to breed more tailed rats
Step 4: Rat farms
Inspectors find farms breeding rats for their tails
Economists call this a perverse incentive: a reward that produces the opposite of what its designers wanted. It's often nicknamed the cobra effect, after a story that British rulers in Delhi paid for dead cobras, people bred cobras for the cash, and when the scheme ended they freed their snakes. That tale may be a legend, though. The historian Michael Vann, who rediscovered the Hanoi episode, argues that the cobra story can't be proven while the rat story can, and suggests calling it the "Rat Effect".
The pattern keeps repeating. A US Army base paid $40 per feral pig tail, and the pig population grew. In 2002 British officials offered Afghan farmers $700 an acre to destroy their poppies, and farmers rushed to plant more. The lesson: reward exactly what you can measure, and people will give you exactly that, even when it's not what you wanted.
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Recap
People deliver exactly what you pay for, so pay for the outcome you want, not a proxy that can be gamed.
Surprising fact · In 1902 Hanoi's rat bounty led to tailless rats in the streets and rat farms outside the city.
Connects to
- 🎯 How did a 100,000-tests-a-day target make COVID numbers less trustworthy?
- Incentive
- Unintended consequences
- Great hanoi rat massacre
- Third plague pandemic
Sources (2)
No source, no claim. Every fact in this lesson (16 claims) cites at least one of these.