Economics●●●●●Difficulty 2 of 5

Why is rock paper scissors a serious piece of mathematics?

There's a provably unbeatable way to play rock paper scissors, and the maths behind it later won a string of Nobel Prizes.

▶ Start the story

Rock paper scissors is serious mathematics because it is the simplest example of a game where your best move depends entirely on what the other player does, and that is exactly what game theory studies. Game theory is the branch of applied mathematics that models interactions between several players as games of strategy, to predict and choose the moves that pay off best. And it has a crisp answer for rock paper scissors: if you pick each move uniformly at random, nobody can gain an advantage over you. The moment you get predictable, a clever opponent can spot your pattern and beat you.

Diagram of rock, paper and scissors in a circle, with arrows showing that rock crushes scissors, scissors cut paper and paper covers rock.
Every move beats one and loses to another, so no move is best on its own. Your best choice depends on your opponent's, which is what makes it a game in the mathematical sense.Photo: Enzoklop (original), OmegaFallon (edit) · CC BY-SA 3.0

The field took shape around a Hungarian-American mathematician, John von Neumann. In 1928 he proved his minimax theorem: in a zero-sum game, where one player wins only what the other loses, there is a pair of strategies that lets each side keep its worst-case loss as small as possible. In 1944 he and the economist Oskar Morgenstern published Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, and the public was so curious that The New York Times put it on its front page.

The ideas spread far beyond parlour games. Game theory is now used in economics, biology, computer science, law and political science. Biologists even use rock paper scissors to study the ecology and evolution of bacteria. And the prizes followed: John Nash and two colleagues won the Nobel in economics in 1994, and game theorists have won it five more times since.

How game theory grew up
  1. 1913

    Zermelo: chess has a determined optimal strategy

  2. 1928

    Von Neumann proves the minimax theorem

  3. 1944

    Theory of Games and Economic Behavior

  4. 1950

    Nash defines his equilibrium

  5. 1994

    Nobel Prize for Nash, Harsanyi and Selten

  6. 2020

    Nobel for Milgrom and Wilson

Quiz me

0/3

  1. 1.Why can't anyone beat a rock paper scissors player who picks each move uniformly at random?
  2. 2.What does von Neumann's minimax theorem say about zero-sum games?
  3. 3.Why did John Nash's 1950 work widen game theory so much?

Recap

In a game, you can't choose well without thinking about how the other players will choose.

Surprising fact · In 1944 a maths book on games by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern made the front page of The New York Times.

Sources (3)

No source, no claim. Every fact in this lesson (17 claims) cites at least one of these.

  1. [1]Game theory · Wikipedia
  2. [2]John von Neumann · Wikipedia
  3. [3]Rock paper scissors · Wikipedia
More lessons in 💰 Economics (3) See all economics lessons →

One more light on your map.

Get one lesson like this every day, about the things you love. Free, in two or five minutes.

Get the share card for this lesson ↗