Will asteroid Apophis hit Earth, and what happens at its 2029 flyby?

No: Apophis will not hit Earth in 2029, and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced in March 2021 that it has no chance of impacting Earth in the next 100 years. On 13 April 2029 it will pass about 31,600 kilometres above Earth's surface.

It was not always so clear. Apophis, a near-Earth asteroid 450 by 170 metres in size, was discovered in June 2004 at Kitt Peak by Roy Tucker, David Tholen and Fabrizio Bernardi. In December 2004 early observations briefly indicated a 2.7% probability of a hit on 13 April 2029. On 27 December 2004 that gave it a Torino rating of 4, the highest ever recorded. Later that same day a precovery image, an older photograph that extended the observation arc back to March 2004, eliminated the chance of an impact in 2029.

The 2029 flyby will be spectacular. The distance is five times the radius of the Earth, one tenth the distance to the Moon, and closer than the ring of geostationary satellites. It will be the closest asteroid of its size in recorded history, as bright as magnitude 3.1, visible to the naked eye from rural and darker suburban areas in Europe, Africa and western Asia.

Scientists plan to watch it closely. OSIRIS-REx, renamed OSIRIS-APEX, is planned to rendezvous with Apophis in April 2029, and ESA's Ramses mission is planned to arrive in February 2029.