What does the longevity industry promise, and what does the evidence show?
The US market for hormones sold to slow ageing made about $50 billion in 2009, yet the FDA said in 2023 that no medication has been proven to slow or reverse ageing.
Guess first
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Which one is it?
Mostly promises that run ahead of the evidence. is the idea of extending the human lifespan, either by gradual medical improvements or by radical increases beyond the generally settled biological limit of around 125 years. It is a real research field, and also a big market. Selling purported anti-ageing products such as and is a lucrative global industry: the US industry promoting hormones to slow ageing generated about $50 billion a year in 2009, and such hormone products have not been proven effective or safe.
What do the experiments show? Anti-ageing drugs show limited laboratory evidence in animals, but to date there are no human studies of drugs that promote , mainly because research investment is low and are high. Governments do not recognise ageing as a preventable condition, so there is no clear pathway to approving anti-ageing medicines. In 2023 the US Food and Drug Administration stated that no medication has been proven to slow or reverse the ageing process.
The boldest claims go further. Longevity escape velocity is the point at which remaining is extended faster than time is passing. Ray Kurzweil predicted in 2018 that it would be reached in 10 to 12 years and revised that in 2024 to 2029 to 2035; Aubrey de Grey has given a 50 percent chance in the mid-to-late 2030s. Critics note that reaching it would be a statistical observation, which does not mean that everyone gets access to the technology.
The sensible way to read a longevity claim is to ask what kind of evidence stands behind it: a cell in a dish, a worm, a mouse, or a trial in people.
Try it
Slope or intercept?
y = 1 · 1.09ˣ
Challenge · Halve the risk at every age (a = 0.5) and read the risk 40 years after age 30, at 70. Then put a back to 1 and lower b until you match it at 70. Which b does it take, and do the two curves still agree at 78?
Quiz me
0/3
Recap
Ask which rung the evidence sits on: dish, worm, mouse or human trial.
💡 A trick to remember it · Evidence is a ladder: dish, worm, mouse, human: most longevity claims stand on the lower rungs.
Surprising fact · No medication has been proven to slow or reverse ageing, said the FDA in 2023.
Connects to
- ⏱️ What is an epigenetic clock, and what does it really measure?
- 📈 Why does the risk of dying roughly double every eight years of adult life?
- 🎲 How does a trial keep hope from fooling everyone?
- 🗄️ Why can published science look more certain than it really is?
- 💊 Can a sugar pill really make you feel better?
- Hallmarks of aging
Sources (4)
No source, no claim. Every fact in this lesson (16 claims) cites at least one of these.